Commentary on 3Q 2026 URA Flash Estimates

Private Home Prices Rise Despite Slower Sales Activity,
Pointing to Resilient Underlying Demand

According to flash estimates released by URA for 3Q 2026, the All-Residential Property Price Index rose 1.4% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), up from 0.5% q-o-q growth in the previous quarter. 

“The 1.4% rise in private home prices is significant because it came in a quarter with fewer launches and lower transaction volumes. This tells us that buyer demand has not disappeared — buyers have become more selective, but they are still prepared to commit when the right product is launched at the right price.” said Marcus Chu, CEO of ERA Singapore.

“The market could regain momentum in the fourth quarter as more projects come onstream. With nearly 2,000 new condominium units expected from Lucerne Grand, The Serra Residences and Thomson Reserve, buyers will have more choices and we should get a clearer picture of the depth of underlying demand,” adds Chu.

Based on caveats lodged as at 1 October 2026, total private home transactions fell to 4,702 caveats lodged this quarter, compared with 6,148 units reported in the URA 2Q 2026 Quarterly Report.

The overall non-landed private property price index (PPI) rose slightly by 0.9% q-o-q to 212.5 in 3Q 2026, after a 0.1% q-o-q dip in the second quarter. 

• The Outside Central Region (OCR) saw a 2.2% q-o-q increase in prices, rebounding from the 0.1% q-o-q decline in the previous quarter.  This quarter’s price growth could be due to the successful launch of projects like Lentor Gardens Residences in July. 
• The RCR saw a slight uptick of 0.2% in prices despite no new condominiums being launched during the quarter.
• The Core Central Region (CCR) was the only market segment which saw a dip in prices, inching down 0.1% q-o-q this quarter. 
• Demand held steady for landed home prices, which increased by 2.8% q-o-q in the quarter. 

This quarter saw the launch of only three new condominium projects: Dunearn House (D11, CCR), Lentor Gardens Residences (D26, OCR), and Amberwood At Holland (D10, CCR). This is in line with the previous quarter, which also saw the launch of three projects. 

In contrast, the resale market was affected by the Hungry Ghost Festival, which contributed to a sharp decline in transactions, from 3,813 in URA’s 2Q 2026 report to 2,640 caveats lodged this quarter. Meanwhile, sub-sale transactions continued their downward trend, falling to a low of 101 caveats lodged this quarter.

“What stands out this quarter is the divergence between prices and transaction volumes. Transactions slowed, but prices continued to rise. This suggests that the market is being supported by genuine housing demand rather than transaction volume alone,” said Chu.

“We expect price growth to remain measured rather than run away. Based on the current trajectory, private home prices remain on track with ERA's 3% to 5% growth forecast for 2026, while new home sales are expected to reach 9,000 to 10,000 units,” adds Chu.

New Sale 

• Condominium

According to caveats lodged as of 1 October 2026, new sales transactions for non-landed private residential (excluding executive condominiums) fell sharply from 2,141 units (based on URA’s 2Q 2026 report) to 1,046 units in 3Q 2026 (based on caveats lodged). The decline can be attributed to fewer new launches during the quarter, coinciding with the Hungry Ghost Festival, which led to fewer transactions and a more subdued quarter for the primary market.

The third quarter saw the launch of only 1,091 condominium units from Dunearn House (380 units), Lentor Gardens Residences (499 units) and Amberwood At Holland (212 units). Dunearn House and Lentor Gardens Residences achieved strong sales during their July launches, with take-up rates of over 50%.  

The fourth quarter will see the launch of 1,971 new condominium units from Lucerne Grand (570 units), The Serra Residences (133 units) and Thomson Reserve (1,268 units). The stronger supply pipeline is expected to boost sales volume in the primary market.

• Executive Condominium (EC)

There were no EC launches in 3Q 2026, which could explain this quarter’s lower transaction volume for ECs. The majority of this quarter’s new sales volume for ECs is from Coastal Cabana (45 transactions) and Rivelle Tampines (16 transactions), both launched earlier this year.

During the National Day Rally, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong announced that the monthly income ceiling for ECs has been raised from $16,000 to $18,000. The higher ceiling will apply to all EC sites whose land tender closed on or after 24 August 2026. This increase will allow more households to be eligible to purchase a new EC from developers.

Secondary Market

In 3Q 2026, resale transactions for non-landed private homes (excluding ECs) declined by 30.8% quarter-on-quarter to 2,640 caveats lodged, making this the slowest quarter so far this year, which could be attributed to the Hungry Ghost Festival.

In line with the drop in resale transactions, the median price for non-landed private residential properties (excluding EC) fell 1.1% q-o-q to $1,771 psf.

Within the sub-sale segment, transaction volumes continue to decline, falling from 194 transactions reported in URA’s 2Q 2026 report to a low of 101 caveats lodged this quarter. The median sub-sale price also fell from $2,413 psf in the second quarter to $2,363 psf this quarter.

Market Outlook

According to the 3Q 2026 flash estimates, overall private property prices rose by 1.4% q-o-q. They remain on track to reach ERA’s earlier forecast of 3% to 5%.

Singapore is recognised as a safe haven amid global uncertainties, thanks to stable governance, a strong Singapore Dollar, and a resilient property market. Despite global market challenges, the residential property sector in Singapore remains largely optimistic in the near term. Over time, Singapore has built a reputation as a leading wealth hub in the region, with its real estate regarded as a high-quality asset that provides steady rental income and strong capital appreciation for investors.

“One structural trend that is becoming increasingly important is the transfer of housing wealth between generations. We are seeing older homeowners right-size and unlock equity from properties that have appreciated significantly, while some younger buyers receive family support for their first or next home,” said Chu.

“This recycling of housing wealth is creating another layer of demand in the residential market. It also helps explain why purchasing power has remained relatively resilient even as home prices and affordability pressures have increased,” adds Chu.

In 2026, the private residential market is expected to remain resilient, supported by moderate price growth driven by strong owner-occupier demand and ongoing right-sizing trends. Healthy take-up rates from recent project launches reinforce this positive outlook. This underlying demand has also prompted developers to commit to new projects, suggesting that the development pipeline and future housing supply will continue to be supported by strong market fundamentals. 

Buyers can also look forward to a pipeline of 18 private residential projects, including one landed project, and five EC launches next year. Barring unforeseen circumstances, ERA Singapore projects new home sales to be between 9,000 and 10,000 units, while the secondary market is expected to record 12,000 to 13,000 transactions, indicating stable underlying demand in the year ahead.

END

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